The first casualty of any war...

It's stating the obvious but, the first casualty is always the truth. With the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine, the fog of war has truly descended. In an age of social media and its attendant information/disinformation/propaganda overload, trying to pick out the actual truth of what's happening is an incredibly difficult and thankless task. Difficult because in an age of AI, false images are already being created and circulated. Thankless, because whatever initial conclusions you may draw, despite being totally honest about being willing to change your mind as new, credible evidence emerges, there will be partisan voices from all sides berating you.

Suffice to say, this conflict has geo-political implications. How these will play out is the matter of some fairly intense discussion in what is a rapidly evolving situation. Anything that does get written about the implications will inevitably be a snapshot in time. It's with this in mind that I present to you two initial takes on the situation from Nevermore Media: Is This Armageddon? On the War in the Holy Land 8.10.23 and: ARMAGEDDON 101 - TEN THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE WAR IN THE HOLY LAND (PART 2) 11.10.23. The best way to characterise these pieces are as 'thinking out loud'.

I've had a bit of a trawl and have come up with a selection of pieces, the light from which I hope will start to penetrate the fog of war. These pieces come from a variety of perspectives. As this conflict plays out and widens, I may well be posting up more selections of commentaries.

The media is leaving out so much about the Gaza war - Council Estate Media 10.10.23

So much misinformation has been flying around about the war in Gaza, such as the story of Hamas locking children in tiny cages. The video “evidence” was first published online before the war started and Snopes was unable to verify who those children were or who locked them up. Many other stories appear to be false, although it’s hard to say definitively, and no one wants to risk denying an atrocity. All I’m saying is don’t be surprised if much of what you’ve read turns out to be wrong.

Neither Israel nor Hamas! - Anarchist Communist Group 11.10.23

Hamas was originally supported by the Israeli State to undermine the more secular Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). It has its origins in Mujama al-Islamiya which was founded by the Palestinian cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yasin, seen as an organisation involved in charity and welfare work for the Palestinian community of Gaza. The Israeli state regarded it as preferable to the PLO, as was its successor Hamas. Hamas was always right wing, Islamist and nationalist, with hostile attitudes towards women and LGBQT people and to the Palestinian working class.

From Gaza to Tel-Aviv and to the whole World… No War But Class War! - Statement from Tridni Valka (Class War) in Czech Republic reproduced by the Anarchist Communist Group

October 7th, 2023 – another day of a bloody, decades-long conflict between opposing capitalist factions in the territory of “Israel/Palestine”. Our bourgeois masters are once again pushing our proletarian brothers and sisters to murder each other and expect us – depending on where we live – to rally in support of one or the other side.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad are launching rockets against the towns in “Israel” as well as sending their militias to go street by street and execute or kidnap “civilians” and “soldiers”… just like what happened in Srebrenica, in Sabra and Shatila, in Bucha…

IDF is bombing and shelling indiscriminately across the Gaza ghetto, flattening whole neighborhoods, as well as cutting off the supply of water, electricity, food, medicine… just like what happened in Fallujah, in Homs, in Mariupol… or just like it did so many times before.

Is Israel Weaker Than Widely Seen in Hamas/Palestine “War”? - Yves Smith | Naked Capitalism 9.10.23

We are again in the fog of (mis)information phase of reporting on a conflict that has the potential to escalate in a serious way. But we’ll pick through various accounts and speculation about Hamas striking from Gaza into Israel and its potential to set off a wider Middle East conflagration.

Let’s first dismiss the idea that somehow Israel ginned up the attack (as opposed to triggered a reaction to a provocation) or that Mossad was aware but chose to let it proceed so as to provide a better excuse for a ferocious retaliation. Israel’sresponse has been way too flat-footed for that to be credible. And Hamas’ massive rocket attack, which has overwhelmed the vaunted Iron Dome and continued last night, punctures one of the hallmarks of Israel’s prowess. Readers have argued that the resulting damage to the sense of day-to-day safety has the potential to weaken Israel’s economy, since recent immigrants and expat workers in its tech industries could decamp.

UPDATED: Hamas declares war on Israel? - OffGuardian 9.10.23

Consider our banner image of war-torn Palestine...it was made with a generative AI. (A handy tool for any war photographers who don’t feel like visiting a warzone). How many images and how much footage of this war – or others – is produced this way? Who can say.

There’s already talk that, like in 1973, it could cause an energy crisis. Definitely something to keep in mind.

The most surprising thing about this attack is, well, that it was a surprise.

After all, you’d think an over-funded Israeli military would be well capable of both monitoring and countering any attack from the comparatively small and ill-equipped Palestinian forces.

Right, that's the initial selection of takes and commentaries. What follows are my tentative thoughts on the situation. While I take an interest in geo-politics, I don't claim to be an expert. My activism has been mainly, but not exclusively, focused on grassroots community issues. Those of you who have followed me for a while will be aware that I was also involved in some of the many currents of dissent that opposed the lockdowns imposed in 2020 going into 2021 to deal with the Covid 'crisis'.

Let's briefly deal with what back in 2020 and 2021, was the growing sense of solidarity between the various currents of dissent opposing the lockdowns and the way the Covid 'crisis' was being leveraged to accelerate wider agenda of the great reset. In just the few days since Hamas launched their incursion into Israel, all the indications are that the sense of solidarity that was growing is rapidly fracturing. One factor in this is people leaping in with their opinions and positions before thinking things through. Another is people allowing themselves to get played. It would appear that the lessons about getting played from the psyops we've been subjected to since early 2020 have not been fully taken on board by some people.

Suffice to say, there are people in 2020 and 2021 who were standing side by side with each other on the streets in opposition to the lockdowns and the wider agenda of the great reset, now turning on each other because they have different takes on the conflict between Hamas and Israel. All the work and graft that has been put in to build this sense of solidarity in what we initially thought would be a new social phenomenon has, to put it bluntly, been flushed down the shitter. For the powers that be, this is what can best be described as an unintentional but very welcome outcome. Although, as I noted in this piece - Moving on from tribalism 30.9.23 - given the diverse nature of the currents of dissent opposing lockdown and the great reset, a fracturing at some point was pretty much inevitable.

As for communal tensions, while there have allegedly been some incidents of Islamists celebrating the Hamas offensive, as yet, there hasn't been any significant rise in tension in and near neighbourhoods in the UK with a sizeable Muslim population. There is a sense of nervousness within the Jewish community. I've no doubt there are elements on all sides who are stirring things up for their own nefarious purposes. Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if there was trouble, which will be exploited by people with agendas to promote and axes to grind. I hope that there are enough community leaders and activists around with the common sense to act to defuse any tensions that may arise.

There's a fair bit that could be said about the terror threat here in the UK. There's a lot that is being said on various channels about who could be recruited to carry out acts of terrorism here. That's one heck of a contentious issue and an absolute minefield to write anything meaningful about without bringing a load of grief down on me. Suffice to say, while I've no intention of entering that minefield, I'm monitoring things...

The terror threat level in the UK is currently set at Substantial. Above this, there's Severe and Critical. So far, despite the risk of community tensions increasing as a consequence of the conflict between Hamas and Israel, the terror threat is not up to the full maximum. That could well change in the face of an actual credible threat emerging. It could also change if the powers that be deem it expedient to exert more control over us by inflating the threat to whatever level suits their purposes. Given that after the last four years, nothing surprises me any more, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that a raising of the terror threat to Critical could be the justification for a semi-lockdown situation.

In a rapidly emerging and evolving situation, reading compilations and takes like this are snapshots in time. Further reading, discussion and observation of what's actually happening on the streets will lead to the analysis of the situation being developed. There will be more pieces like this as my understanding evolves. Meanwhile, I'll leave you with this...