Escalation?

It's been a while since I've posted up anything about the situation in the Middle East as Israel pulverises Gaza, while across the wider region tensions continue to rise as more players enter the conflict. This was the last post I wrote which took a look at the build up of Western military assets in the Mediterranean: The build up... 7.11.23.

I could write about the human cost of Israel's relentless assault on Gaza but, I'm not sure I'd have anything to say about the carnage that hasn't already been said. Not wanting to be seen as callous or uncaring but, I'd rather focus my attention on what's happening across the wider region and how the conflict is spreading. Taking a few steps back, it really does look like there will at least be a regional war and possibly, more than that...

If anyone thought that regimes and groups sympathetic to the Palestinian cause would simply sit back and watch while Israel obliterates Gaza, they're naïve. Iranian backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have taken advantage of that country's strategic position at the foot of the Red Sea to attack and disrupt ships heading up to, and down from, the Suez Canal in retaliation for Israel's assault on Gaza. This is already causing disruption as shipping companies opt to send their vessels on the longer, more expensive route around the Cape of Good Hope rather than risk losing them and their crews in the Red Sea:

More than 100 container ships rerouted from Suez canal to avoid Houthi attacks - Jasper Jolly | The Guardian | 20.12.23

An extended disruption to normal shipping patterns could eventually cause shortages of products for consumers or parts for manufacturers, although few have reported any effects so far.

The disruption has coincided with a period in which many factories shut down temporarily for Christmas, giving some extra time for companies to receive crucial supplies.

Petrol prices could jump after Red Sea attacks send oil prices surging - Rhodri Morgan | CityA.M. | 20.12.23

Oil prices have spiked and could remain elevated as companies try and find alternative cargo routes following vessel attacks in the Red Sea.

International benchmark Brent crude has shot up to $79.35/bbl as of this morning, having opened on Monday at $77.24/bbl.

The attacks, which have been occurring daily since Monday, are believed to have been perpetrated by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Major shippers such as Maersk and Evergreen and Norwegian gas giant Equinor have implemented re-routing plans, while oil firm BP became the first among peers to pause all shipments through the Red Sea, citing a “deteriorating security situation.”

Bear in mind that the ongoing and potentially escalating disruption to the Suez Canal comes in on top of months of disruption to the Panama Canal because of drought lowering water levels to the point where the number of ships passing through had to be reduced: Panama Canal is taking a small step to ease the epic traffic jam that has snarled global shipping for months - Fortune | 16.12.23. When you have global, 'just in time' supply chains, it doesn't actually take much for them to be disrupted. The world is yet again, learning that painful lesson as a growing number of companies switch from operating in 'just in time' mode to increasing stocks of supplies and operating in 'just in case' mode. That's assuming they can find the warehouse space to do that. If they can't, then basically, they're screwed.

Events like the drought afflicting the Panama Canal are black swan ones that should have been anticipated with contingencies put into place but, such is the hubris of the modern world, that doesn't appear to have been the case. When Houthi rebels take it upon themselves to take action that to all intents and purposes, restricts and even shuts off traffic using the Suez Canal, then that hubris is shown up for all to see.

Western nations do not like it when their hubris is exposed. They really don't like it when the naïve faith they have placed in complex, 'just in time' global supply chains is shattered by the actions of what some would dismiss as 'bunch of rebels'. Albeit, very well armed ones, courtesy of Iran. It's not just the disruption to economies, it's the embarrassment of having a significant part of your economic model being shown up as actually being a bit crap.

Western nations are not liking the disruption and the possibility of that escalating. They sure as heck don't like the fragility of their economic model shown for all the world to see by 'a bunch of rebels'. So predictably, a naval task force is in the process of being assembled to try to secure the route up and down the Red Sea, making shipping companies feel confident about using that route again:

Can the US-led maritime force stop Yemen’s Houthi attacks during Gaza war? - Maziar Motamedi | Aljazeera | 19.12.23

“The Houthis are feeling emboldened. They perceive that they have won the civil war in Yemen and that their position is unchallenged domestically,” said Thomas Juneau, an assistant professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa whose research focuses on the Middle East, especially Iran and Yemen. “They also probably assess that the US and its regional partners are keen to avoid an escalation of the war in Gaza into a full-blown regional war.”

Yemen will target Israeli vessels despite US-led naval coalition: Official - The Cradle | 19.12.23

In response to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s announcement of the creation of a multinational naval operation to patrol the Red Sea, Yemen’s Ansarallah-led government said they will continue targeting Israeli-linked ships in the strategic shipping corridor.

"Our position will not change in the direction of the Palestinian issue, whether a naval alliance is established or not," Ansarallah official Mohammed Abdulsalam told Reuters, stressing that only Israeli ships or those going to Israel would be targeted.

“Our position in support of Palestine and the Gaza Strip will remain until the end of the siege, the entry of food and medicine, and our support for the oppressed Palestinian people will remain continuous.”

Whether this task force will succeed in this endeavour is a moot point. It may be the case that military action against the Houthi rebels escalates to the point where Iran feels obliged to intervene. That would quite possibly mean Iran taking action in the Persian Gulf with a particular focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Which would certainly disrupt oil supplies. The consequences of that could well be an escalation of Western action, raising the chances of this war spreading.

To make things really 'interesting', a number of governments are taking action in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. One example of this is Malaysia banning Israeli flagged ships from using its ports:

Malaysia bans Israeli ships in its docks in support of Gaza - The Cradle | 20.12.23

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia issued a statement on 20 December announcing that the nation will immediately bar the Israeli shipping company Zim from using its docks.

“The Malaysian government decided to block and disallow the Israeli-based shipping company Zim from docking at any Malaysian port,” Prime Minister Ibrahim said in a statement on social media. “The Ministry of Transport will take immediate action by imposing a permanent ban on this company with immediate effect.”

The title of this post is 'Escalation?' It really does look as though this conflict will spread and will escalate. It could well do so in a way that will start to impact our lives as disrupted shipping fuels price rises and inflation. There is the possibility of oil shortages as well if Iran does take action in the Persian Gulf. A situation that puffed up politicians will exploit to justify further Western involvement in an ever widening and increasingly dangerous war. Whether the populace at large will buy into that rhetoric or reject it remains to be seen. Suffice to say, it looks like 2024 will be a turbulent year...